Polarization Analysis of Rasmussen Monthly Approval Numbers

On January 2, 2010, In Polls, By Andrew Schwartz

Rasmussen Reports just published its monthly approval averages for President Obama in 2009 along with its own Approval Index (Strongly Approve – Strongly Disapprove). As a statistician at heart, I felt that a further analysis was warranted. As is seen in the chart below, the percentage of those disapproving opinions who hold a “strongly disapprove” stance has risen from 59% to a very high  77%. That is to say, only 59% of those who disapproved of President Obama’s job performance held a strong disapproval opinion of him in January, while 77% now do.

Similarly, in January, 69% of those who approved of his performance held a “strong approval” opinion. This number has declined dramatically to nearly 56%.

Analysis of Rasmussen Reports Approval Index

Analysis of Rasmussen Reports Approval Index -- Source Data from Rasmussen Reports

The “Polarization Index” is the weighted difference of  [|1-(PSA/A - PSD/D)|], where (more…)

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CNN fudges analysis of their own poll

On December 10, 2009, In Polls, By Andrew Schwartz

CNN reported that a “majority of the public believes the president will eventually accomplish enough to merit the honor [of a Nobel Peace Prze].” Only 19% believe he deserved it for his current actions.

They arrived at “a majority” by asking the following questions:

 
Do you think Obama has accomplished enough so far to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize, or don’t you think so?
Yes = 19%
No = 80%
No opinion = 1%

They then asked a follow up question to those who thought that he didn’t deserve it:

 
 (IF DO NOT THINK HE ACCOMPLISHED ENOUGH) Do you think it is likely or unlikely that Obama will eventually accomplish enough to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize?
 
Not accomplished enough but likely will  = 35%
 
Not accomplished enough and likely won’t  = 43%
 
They then added the 35% to the original 19% who thought he deserved it, coming up with a majority of 54%.
HOWEVER, that 35% is from the 80% who don’t believe he deserved it, making it an actualy percentage of the population of 28% (.80 * .35), which gives, not a majority, but a mere 47%, or a number equal to his approval ratings.
Wonderful reporting from “The most trusted name in news”.

 

 

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