Deflationary Spiral and Government Spending

Obama’s “bold” stimulus package is anything but. He is not venturing into any unchartered terrirtory. He has not come up with any new ideas. He is using a simple variation-on-a-liberal-theme, which involves more and more government spending in order to get out of a crisis. FDR did it, Carter did it, now Obama plans to do it.

 

Throughout this entire politicization of economics, hundreds of solutions have been offered. Coming from the right is mostly the idea that the government should stay out of it. Coming from the left (and McCain and Bush) is the idea that infusing the economy with “capital” is the way to go; nevermind where that “capital” comes from. One thing I have not heard from a prominent politician is a reduction in government spending.

 

We have seen hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, and Obama has warned of “millions” more. Have there been any federal government layoffs? Has there been an effort to curb spending by any government agency? Has there been any sort of inclination for the federal government to set the example and live within their means? The answer to all three of these has been “no.”

 

The United States Postal Service was reportedly considering layoffs in October, but then they denied it in November and announced a raise in rates beginning January 1, 2009 (as if that is going to encourage the use of snail-mail). Government agencies have been spending their budget to the fullest over the past year; some have even been spending more. (If they don’t spend their budget to the fullest, they don’t get the same amount next year.) And now the Obama administration is announcing a “bold” stimulus package that will increase government spending by trillions over the next four years, although he hasn’t exactly given a number.

 

Obama claims that this deflationary spiral will increase the defecit. What is he talking about? If prices go down and the defecit remains the same, it is only an increase in relative defecit. The only way to increase the actual defecit is by spending more money. If you owe $1,000 on your Visa for a computer you bought, you owe $1,000 regardless of the value of the dollar or the computer; it may just be a little harder to pay off. If you continue to use your Visa you will owe more.

 

But Obama’s answer to the economic flu has been to create more and more government jobs (Office of the President-elect; Change.gov; technology czar…), and he hasn’t even been sworn in yet…

Bailing Out the Auto Industry

On the surface, bailing out the Big Three of the auto industry sounds like a win-win scenario. Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler provide approximately 500,000 jobs to Americans and millions more to secondary and tertiary industries such as suppliers, dealerships, and mechanics. If the government does not bail them out, it could stand to lose over $150 billion in revenue. Obama’s proposed bailout package to the auto industry is only $25 billion, or 1/6th of the revenue they stand to lose. So why not bailout the auto industry? Why is President Bush resisting this seemingly mutually beneficial package?

I suppose I should qualify this article by saying I was never in favor of the bailout in the first place. Injecting $700 billion dollars worth of capital into banks is meaningless if it is putting the injector in debt an additional $700 billion dollars. What makes it worse is that the injector, the government, attached strings to its money, placing the businesses they want to succeed firmly under the governmental thumb.

But the bailout, er, rescue package passed, and we must deal with it. Obama’s plan calls for $25 billion of that $700 billion to go toward the auto industry. However, this money was not intended for the auto industry. This money was intended for banks, to encourage banks to lend money by way of buying up their troubled assets. Now the President-elect wants to bypass the original intent of the bill, one he voted for, and pursue some sort of “quick fix” for the auto industry. I fear there is not quick fix for our current economic situation. We can see retrospectively that it was a long time coming, and it will take time to fix it. One thing I haven’t heard politicians emphasize is fiscal responsibility or living within our means, something to which the government should adhere as well. The reason this is not emphasized is because it is not a quick fix, and Americans have grown so accustomed to instantaneous results. Our collective short attention span and disposable-goods society demand nothing less than instant and easily replaced goods and services, even at the expense of quality. Fiscal responsibility may not be a quick fix, but it is a quality fix that does not have a long-term perpetuation of our economic crisis.

Proponents (mostly democrats) for the bill cite the “rippling down” effect the $25 billion will create, helping the suppliers, dealers, mechanics, and ultimately the consumers. These proponents (Obama included) are the same people who decried trickle down economics, saying that its time had passed, that it doesn’t work in a 21st century economy (as if the laws of supply and demand are influenced by arbitrary temporal milestones). Now they insist that helping big business will be good for the consumer! I suppose a tax cut would have been just as effective, only the government wouldn’t go further into debt by imposing it…

Finally, if the Fed allows the automobile industry to participate in government handouts, whom can they prohibit from participating? Lobbyists for financing companies have already formed lines outside the Treasury Department seeking their own little capitally-infused piece of pie. What happens if we open it up to manufacturing and production companies? I presume it would be like a New Years Eve party in Times Square where Dick Clark offers free beer to anyone who shows up. The only difference would be that Dick Clark could not make the beer consumers play by his rules… The precedent is dangerous.

I don’t want the automobile industry to fail. I want them to succeed. It benefits me and my portfolio if they do. But if the government continues its practice of “rescuing” private companies, they will have created a maelstrom of debt from which it will be impossible to escape. Hundreds of thousands, even as many as 5 million may lose their jobs if GM, Ford, and Chrysler go under now; but how many more will lose their jobs five, ten, or twenty years from now if we continue to infuse false capital into a dying business who has been living outside its means?

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