Shattered Expectations

Already, Obama and his advisors are trying to tone down the enormous expectations they set during the campaign. They say the economic crisis is so bad that we may not be out of it for (ahem) five years! This looks to me like a not so subtle approach to a reelection campaign.

 

Perhaps now that Obama is getting all the information that the President gets, he has probably realized that there has been way more going on than he previously knew during his 6-month working stint in the Senate. (I don’t claim to know what is going on, but I am positive that neither the American public nor senate have access to all the information.) He has probably realized that this final verdict was not a verdict at all, but rather a complex web of proactions, reactions, and inevitables. This could have been coming for 5, 10, 20, or even 50 years.

 

Another option is that he knew he wouldn’t be able to fix the economy in a short amount of time, but decided to deceive the people into thinking he could. His entire campaign was centered around the word “change,” which connotes an abrupt shift in direction, speed, or mass. If he wanted to be completely honest during his campaign he would have made the slogan, “Slow Change We Can Believe In,” or “Evolution We Can Believe In.” Instead, he played on Americans’ short attention spans, manipulated their emotions, and promised to change the world.

 

I can see his administration’s policy now. He will continue to blame anything bad that happens on his predecessor, insisting that “fixing” things “takes time.” I can also see that the media will believe him and force that belief onto the American people. When will he begin to accept responsibility? He set these enormous expectations, not the media, not the people; they just merely believed him. That he is attempting to shift away from those expectations says that he is either deceitful or unwilling to accept responsibility for his actions. Or both.

 

President Harry S Truman had a sign on his desk: “The Buck Stops Here.” I believe Obama’s sign will read, “Bush Has The Buck; Give Me Yours.”

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Obama’s Middle Eastern Problem

Obama has fashioned himself as the harbinger of peace. So what will he do when those who do not seek peace impose their beliefs on his plans as Al Qaeda recently reaffirmed? Regardless of his actions, no matter what he does, no matter how well he speaks, no matter whom he allies himself with, there will always be an opposing force. Obama must decide what is best for the American people as a whole, not Washington, not Wall Street, not even Main Street. He must decide what is best for America as a nation, not America as individuals.

 

Incidentally, that decision, whatever it is, will cost American lives, whether directly or indirectly. If Obama chooses to continue the War on Terror, Americans will continue to lose their lives. If Obama chooses to withdraw from an unstable Iraq in order to focus on Afghanistan, Iran will invade Iraq and expand their boundaries under the revived slogan “The Road to Jerusalem goes through Baghdad” (an Iraninan slogan originally coined during the Iran-Iraq war, not an American slogan supporting Iraqi Freedom); eventually, we’ll be back in Iraq losing American lives, protecting Israel or some economic interest we deem necessary. Even if Obama were to withdraw out of the region completely as the extremists demand, the aggressiveness of Islam extremism would eventually attempt to proselytize America, by force if necessary (Spain and the Byzantine Empire are good historical examples of this). So regardless of his decisions, American lives will be lost.

 

The irony is that his supporters may not understand this as readily as his opponents. Those millions of starry-eyed, media-fed Americans that bought into his whole idea of change, thinking he could bring World Peace, are in for a huge surprise. Thankfully, Obama has repeatedly stated his intentions to target and destroy Al Qaeda targets. But he may have backed himself into a corner, as that could eventually cause him to go down the exact same road as George W. Bush. Seeking to “stamp out” Al Qaeda completely could lead to an invasion of Pakistan or Iran, a reoccupation of an abandoned Iraq, or an invasive policy of domestic-terror investigation. A pragmatist will realize that Obama has very tough decisions to make, much as President Bush did; one should hope Obama’s decisions do not invite further terror by making concessions to an unappeasable opponent.

 

Many have likened Obama to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Allow me to conclude by quoting them both:

 

“I welcome the Muslim world’s accurate perception that I am interested in opening up dialogue and interested in moving away from the unilateral policies of George Bush.”
-Barack Obama

 

“No man can tame a tiger into a kitten by stroking it. There can be no appeasement with ruthlessness. There can be no reasoning with an incendiary bomb.”
-Franklin Delano Roosevelt

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Globalization Breeds Global Chaos (Remember Imperialism)

Some might say it is hard to understand the web of initiated and reciprocal threats being posed around the world at a time when the entire world is in financial turmoil. It is an understatement to say the situations are confusing. Russia threatens to deploy missiles near Poland where the United States have their own missiles but say they are not intended to defend against an Iranian strike not a Russian one. Iran lauds the coming of a new U.S. administration then speaks harshly of it when expectations are minimally violated and then offers talks again. Israel warns the U.S. of talking with Iran. The IAEA praises the idea. China shocks the world with its massive bailout package but other European countries are underwhelmed with China and think they should contribute more to the International Monetary Fund because of their huge reserves. Russia begins to increase talks with old allies like Cuba and new ones like Venezuela. France suddenly swoops in and says the missile defense system that Russia is against but most of Europe is for is a bad thing and won’t help defend Europe. China begins to talk to Cuba. Cuba wants free trade with the U.S. And among all of this, the U.S. is telling the world that it would be a “terrible mistake” to increase trade regulation and governmental intervention, while at the same time considering putting stakes into the automobile industry. International crises within the first six months, indeed.

If you followed the specifics of the above paragraph you can see that global pieces are moving in a seemingly haphazard manner. In the broad spectrum of the global situation, though, I believe that these nations know exactly what they are doing. And in a period of time where globalization is praised as the New World Order, we see each country ultimately looking out for itself.

Of course Russia condemns the missile defense system; it impedes their power. Of course Iran wants to talk to the United States; it legitimizes their power. Of course China is going to assert themselves in global economic turmoil; it asserts their power. Of course Cuba and Venezuela want to ally themselves with Russia; it would strengthen their power. Of course the U.S. warns against global regulation; it equalizes our power among other countries, countries whom we consider substantially less powerful than we.

One might compare this time to the Imperialism of the late 19th and early 20th century. Each country was vying for some sort of global footprint. England, arguably the most powerful of its time, served its own interests by establishing the big four throughout the world: economic, geographic, military, and cultural footprints. Virtually every other European country was trying to compete with England in one of the four areas listed above. France stretched its geographic boundaries to Indochina; Spain was maintaining its cultural and geographic boundaries in the New World; everyone in Europe was trying for a piece of the African pie. The United States and Japan even got in on it later in an effort to stay globally competitive.

This was also a time of unprecedented global regulation. In countless international meetings, trade agreements were established, and lines were literally drawn on maps in order to establish geographical boundaries. Culture crossed demographic boundaries like never before, and military power increased exponentially. Throughout all of this, there were also numerous secret military alliances and trade agreements, which ultimately led everyone to trust no one.

The one arcing storyline to all of this was one comparatively small, doesn’t-pose-a-threat country: Germany. Because it was a comparatively new country, others paid little attention to Germany. But when Germany began enormously increasing its military might, nations got nervous. Germany was not able to compete as a maritime nation because of its relatively small coastline, so in order to compete in the Imperialistic paradigm it had to set its sights on neighboring countries. Germany’s military quickly became the most powerful in central Europe, and it was proud to demonstrate its claim to fame.

When the heir to the Austria-Hungary throne, Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated on June 28, 1914, declarations of war ran rampant. Austria-Hungary (a German ally) declared war on Serbia (geographically threatened by Germany); Russia (a German enemy) declared war on Austria-Hungary; Germany declared war on Russia; France declared war on Germany, and soon a free-for-all throughout Europe ensued. Every nation eventually picked a side, either the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) or the Triple Entente (Britain, France, Russia). In the end, there were over 40 million casualties, and Germany was forced to accept responsibility, not only because they lost, but because they could have done the most to prevent the war.

One thing we must remember during our own era of global economic regulation, geographical cooperation, mutual cultural influence, and military secrecy is this: Those who won in World War I didn’t win because of military might, international strategy, or economic superiority. The victors in the War to End All Wars were those whose nationalistic pride and zeal to preserve a way of life exceeded the enemy’s. It was the indefatigable spirit of the capitalistic, Britain, France, and United States of America that prevailed. It was the principles of Victorianism that guided the winner’s moral compass and sustained morale.

In a time when the United States undoubtedly has the biggest footprints in the world, we suddenly seem willing to concede them for the sake of global appeasement. Due to a politicized economic crisis that gained unprecedented attention because of the election, we seem willing to abandon the principles of republicanism and capitalism that brought us to this point and made us a global superpower. President Bush said it very well in his address to the world: “History has shown that the greater threat to economic prosperity is not too little government involvement… it is too much government involvement….”