This post intends to provide mathematical and statistical evidence that supports the legitimacy of the Tea Party and Conservative movement while bringing into question the radical leftist movements that are so ubiquitous and accepted by the mainstream media.

In short, the Right Wing “Kooks” being antagonized by Chris Matthews, et al., is undeserved; rather, the majority of true Kooks–as demonstrated by the statistics herein–are on the other end of the Political Spectrum.

Gallup reported today that 40% of the American population identify themselves as of a conservative ideology. This percentage beat out all other ideologies, as “Moderates” came in second with 36%, and “Liberals” came in 3rd with 21%. This is the first year since 2002 that Conservatives have outpaced Moderates in Gallup’s survey.

A little more interesting is the breakdown of those three ideologies into a more specific camp. Gallup reports the following percentages:

Ideology Percentage
Very Liberal 5%
Liberal 16%
Moderate 36%
Conservative 31%
Very Conservative 9%
No Opinion 3%

 

(The sample size in Gallup’s survey was 21,905 and they obtained a confidence level of 95% with a Margin of Error of 1%; therefore, we can be very confident in assuming this sample is reflective of the entire United States population)

For the remaining analysis, we will disregard those with No Opinion of their own ideology.

If we assign a numerical value to the ideologies, we can make a quantitative analysis. Therefore, based on the “left-to-right” idea of political ideologies, the following values are assigned (with a true moderate equal to zero):

Ideology Value
Very Liberal -2
Liberal -1
Moderate 0
Conservative 1
Very Conservative 2

 

We may also assume the values (-2, -1, 0, 1, and 2) are mean values of a continuous variable; in other words, a “Moderate’s” range would be from -0.51–.50, a “Very Conservative’s” range would be from 1.51–2.50, etc. (as there are varying degrees of “Conservative,” “Liberal,” and even “Moderate”).

The average political ideology for the entire sample came out to be 0.2371, which is approximately 25% more moderately conservative than it is moderately liberal.

Ideology Percentage Number (% of N) Value (x) Weight (n(x))    
Very Liberal 5% 1095 -2 -2191    
Liberal 16% 3505 -1 -3505    
Moderate 36% 7886 0 0    
Conservative 31% 6791 1 6791    
Very Conservative 9% 1971 2 3943    
Sum   21248   5038 Average: 0.2371

 

(more…)

What People Like About Health Care–Rasmussen

Rasmussen recently posted their findings in a survey on the current health care reform bills in Congress. Surprisingly, many respondents favored the creation of a national insurance exchange and requiring insurance companies to accept applicants with preexisting  conditions.

As with all polls, the timbre, syntax, inflection, and word choice greatly influences the outcome of the responses–although Rasmussen tries to eliminate this factor as much as they can. Nevertheless, one can’t help but wonder, what if the questions were asked differently? (Proposed Changes are in Red)

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1* Regardless of what they think of the overall plan, many people have different opinions on individual reform proposals. I am going to read you a list of items included in the proposed health care legislation. For each please let me know if you Strongly Favor, Somewhat Favor, Somewhat Oppose, or Strongly Oppose that proposal.

Okay, the plans before Congress would prohibit people from choosing insurance plans with lower premiums and higher deductibles.

The plans before Congress reduce an individual’s choices in regards to lower premiums and higher deductibles.

8% Strongly favor
16% Somewhat favor
19% Somewhat oppose
45% Strongly oppose
11% Not sure

2* The plan would require nearly all employers to provide health insurance for their employees or pay a penalty.

The plan requires employers to spend more money that could be paid in salary in order to comply with a federal regulation that demands they instead provide an insurance package that will invariably be chosen on the basis of cost to the company…

36% Strongly favor
15% Somewhat favor
12% Somewhat oppose
35% Strongly oppose
2% Not sure

3* The plan would provide subsidies to help low-income people buy health insurance and expand Medicaid to help the poorest get insurance.

The plan takes tax dollars and distributes them to people of the government’s choosing. (more…)

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Polarization Analysis of Rasmussen Monthly Approval Numbers

Rasmussen Reports just published its monthly approval averages for President Obama in 2009 along with its own Approval Index (Strongly Approve – Strongly Disapprove). As a statistician at heart, I felt that a further analysis was warranted. As is seen in the chart below, the percentage of those disapproving opinions who hold a “strongly disapprove” stance has risen from 59% to a very high  77%. That is to say, only 59% of those who disapproved of President Obama’s job performance held a strong disapproval opinion of him in January, while 77% now do.

Similarly, in January, 69% of those who approved of his performance held a “strong approval” opinion. This number has declined dramatically to nearly 56%.

Analysis of Rasmussen Reports Approval Index

Analysis of Rasmussen Reports Approval Index -- Source Data from Rasmussen Reports

The “Polarization Index” is the weighted difference of  [|1-(PSA/A - PSD/D)|], where (more…)

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CNN fudges analysis of their own poll

CNN reported that a “majority of the public believes the president will eventually accomplish enough to merit the honor [of a Nobel Peace Prze].” Only 19% believe he deserved it for his current actions.

They arrived at “a majority” by asking the following questions:

 
Do you think Obama has accomplished enough so far to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize, or don’t you think so?
Yes = 19%
No = 80%
No opinion = 1%

They then asked a follow up question to those who thought that he didn’t deserve it:

 
 (IF DO NOT THINK HE ACCOMPLISHED ENOUGH) Do you think it is likely or unlikely that Obama will eventually accomplish enough to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize?
 
Not accomplished enough but likely will  = 35%
 
Not accomplished enough and likely won’t  = 43%
 
They then added the 35% to the original 19% who thought he deserved it, coming up with a majority of 54%.
HOWEVER, that 35% is from the 80% who don’t believe he deserved it, making it an actualy percentage of the population of 28% (.80 * .35), which gives, not a majority, but a mere 47%, or a number equal to his approval ratings.
Wonderful reporting from “The most trusted name in news”.

 

 

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